Let’s try to be where the puck will be. What happens after the Google Operating System (platform) becomes a reality? Or, how about Google 2.0, as I discussed back in 2001?
(Before I start, forget about the Google browser. That is so lame. Don’t waste cycles on it. If you’re stuck on it, consider yourself warned: You’re behind the Googleplex curve my friend!)
First and foremost, we’ll continue to see attacks from Microsoft. However, we’ll also see attacks from the companies that are currently in bed with Microsoft. Once they realize what happened, they’ll be on fire. You can expect an increase in legal battles, patent suits, and name calling.
The thing you need to keep in mind is that Microsoft isn’t Microsoft alone. Microsoft is perhaps the city of Rome in the Roman Empire. But, Rome was never equivalent to the Roman Empire. Nevertheless, if you take down Rome, you take down the Empire. If you take down Microsoft, you take down all the big and little companies that are the parasites of Microsoft. I hope you follow me.
First realization: Google’s legal cost are going to dramatically increase.
Next, we need to think about the new parasites. Can you name any companies that work closely with Google? Probably not. They are generally hidden. More appropriately, they are completely outshined by Google itself. Few companies working with Google see the light, except maybe by the reflection Google.
Put another way, Google is plowing ahead without much help from outside organizations. It isn’t clear yet if they need help yet. They have plenty of brainpower, plenty of technology, and plenty of money.
So, who does Google care about? Well, they care about Google. They take care of their people from what I understand. They also seem to care about developers and engineers and other smart folks that get work done. They care about the engines of creativity, the people that make the magic happen. But, the magic is usually technical.
Their labs and their developers network are both very strong. Think of Google as center of gravity in the development world right now. It is the place to be. In effect, Google is stealing this move from Microsoft’s playbook: Get the smartest folks on Earth interested in what you do. From there, They Will Come.
Second realization: The future belongs to those who can capitalize on Google’s APIs. If you can hack Google, you can hack a fortune.
If you were Microsoft in the 1980’s what would you care about regarding your software? Plenty of things, but perhaps most important, you’d need to care about hardware. You don’t get software running without hardware. You have no choice, you have to care about the layers below. Not all the layers, but at least the layers that you ride on. Think about how Microsoft played with Intel and IBM and you’ll start to feel the vibe.
Google doesn’t care much about hardware, as long as it is cheap and they can distribute it for maximum effect. That is, hardware isn’t a concern. It doesn’t need to be. But, they do care a little bit about Microsoft and Windows. And, despite what you might be thinking, they care about Apple and Linux too. In fact, they really care about Linux and open and free operating systems.
Operating systems are the new hardware layer. Once the Google Operating System takes hold, operating systems in the traditional sense will not matter much at all. If Microsoft tries to undermine Google by making their tools useless, users will very likely flock to Google not back to Microsoft. You see, Google is more addictive than Microsoft now. You depend more on Gmail, Google Talk, and Desktop Search than you do Windows, Microsoft Office, and Internet Explorer. If that isn’t the case today, it will be the case in the near future.
Google has moved up the food chain, or more appropriately, Maslow’s Hierarchy. The operating system (Windows) doesn’t matter if you run on the internet. There are plenty of web-oriented word processing tools now versus Word. You can easily switch from Internet Explorer to Firefox. But, it is hard to throw away social networks (e.g., Google Talk) and a superior desktop searching tool. Google does new stuff, and the stuff that competes with Microsoft is at least as good but often better.
This isn’t so much a Google versus Microsoft set of comments. Instead, take a step back and just consider that the operating system on your computer or PDA or smartphone just doesn’t matter too much. What matters is the user experience, social value, and (shazam!) low cost.
Using Google is cheap, cheap, cheap. How much do you personally pay to use Google’s goodies. If you’re like me, you pay next to nothing. And yet, Google is making money. If advertising starts to fail them, I’m pretty confident that they’ll be able to extract money from users of their operating system.
By the way, when I say “operating system” I really mean the vast collection of web services that Google offers. So, you’ll have to adjust your mental model a bit.
Third realization: To understand the Google Operating System or Google 2.0, you have to understand what Google is riding on. You have to understand the layer below. One corollary is that you should look at how Microsoft worked back in the 1980s regarding their partners.
Bonus realization: Today’s Microsoft .Net programmers and Sun’s Java programmers are the future COBOL and BASIC programmers. If you are a programmer or software engineer, consider what skills you have and what you care about right now. You’re probably going to be behind the proverbial 8 ball in just a few short years.
